Welcome to #3 of the Bi-Weekly market update with your host LilGoose!
These updates are designed to provide a brief overview of the current market and also take you through any trading alpha or educational content you might have missed out on this week from your favourite CT trader 🦆
So, without further ado, let's kickstart this update for the first half of February 2023!
Like January, the first half of February has increased prices by 9%. However, this time, unlike January, we saw a 7.7% decrease implying choppy or ranging markets for this period.
Ranging markets lead to people giving their gains back, and it's best advised to stick to your long-term plans and only bother trading this environment if you're not used to it. - ChatGPT
Bitcoin is currently sitting at $24,470 with a market capitalization of $472 Trillion, and the Global Market Capitalization of this space has increased to $1.17 Trillion from the previous $1.08 Trillion.
Similar to the price movement, BVOL or the Bitcoin Volatility token from BitMEX, also led a similar path with an increase of 9% and a decrease of over 11.6%.
During times of high volatility, exercise caution and proper risk management to save yourself from significant drawdowns in your portfolio!
Coming onto Sentiment Analysis, we can see that the sentiment has started shifting Bearish or Greedy, with current levels at 58 from 51 in the last update and an average of 53 in the last month.
Is this the bull market or the middle of an echo bubble? Let us know what you think
Lastly, BTC Dominance has mostly stayed the same since our last update, with levels holding at 44%.
While BTC Dominance predominantly doesn't mean much in Lil goose's opinion, keeping it in check could be an excellent way to allocate and diversify your portfolio.
Moving onto Ethereum, we can see that it outperformed Bitcoin on either side with a 9.94% maximum increase and a 7.78% maximum decrease compared to BTC's 9.19% and 7.67%, respectively, performing as a Beta Asset to Bitcoin.
Coming onto ETHBTC, we can see that it is still hovering between our range of 0.068 to 0.077, currently sitting at the lower end of this range. Lil Goose still stands by the point that from a structural perspective, the ETHBTC ratio looks weak, implying that it's better to give high weightage to Bitcoin in your portfolio than Ethereum right now (Not financial advice, of course, as I am a Goose 🦆)
ETH is currently sitting at a Market Capitalization of $203 Billion.
Moving towards ETH's supply, with the Blur airdrop happening, we saw a significant increase in on-chain activity which, even though short-lived, led to a decent decrease in ETH's supply. We are currently sitting at 120.491 Million tokens, down from 120.515 Million at the start of February.
However, the gas prices have stayed constant throughout this period at an average of 30 Gwei, with a significant spike on Feb 14 to 64 Gwei due to Blur Airdrop.
Solana has had a breather this month with a decrease of over 17.5% and an increase of over 12.4%, with it pumping right now as Lil Goose writes this update out.
Safe to say, it has heavily underperformed this month relative to either BTC or ETH, which was expected as it is currently sitting at over 220% from its lows at $8.
It is currently sitting at #12 according to CoinGecko, which is still the same as it was, with a Market Capitalization of over $10 Billion.
The sentiment regarding Solana is still bullish and increasing, as seen from the massive participation in Solana Hackathons these past few weeks.
While we are still not close to the January highs in terms of trading volume, these past 2-3 weeks saw an increase in trading volume jumping from $147 Million to $196 Million.
News and Headlines
These two weeks were heavy hitting in terms of news, as is evident from our last update, with the most important one being FOMC which happened on Feb 1, leading to a whipsaw price action.
To stay on top of such news, you should follow Tier10k on Twitter.
With that out of the way, we see that these upcoming weeks are also news-packed:
- Services and Manufacturing PMI on Feb 21
- FOMC Minutes and Unemployment Claims on Feb 23
- Core PCE Price Index on Feb 24
- To end this month, we have CB Consumer Confidence on Feb 28
- Lastly, we have ISM Services PMI on Mar 3
You can keep a tab on sites like ForexFactory for any news in the Stock Market.
As always, it is advised not to have any open positions before such volatile news events as they tend to have colossal volatility leading to higher chances of getting stopped out.
CT Trading Alpha
Saving the best for the last, we have Lil Goose's favourite section. For new people, your feed might be filled with 99% shitposting tweets and 1% alpha. In that case, Lil Goose is here to ensure you get that 1% of alpha, and in this section, we'll be going over any significant trading threads or videos you might have missed that contain insights to improve your trading.
So, without further ado, let's get into it!
There's too much alpha to share, so Lil goose will be dividing this section into three different sections:
- General Trading
- Orderflow/TPO Charting
First up, we have Cred dropping some back to back based threads on management and psychology.
Congrats to Adam or Abe on hitting 100k followers on Twitter from Lil Goose, and on that occasion, he dropped a great thread on tips to improve your trading.
Next up, we have Lomah talking about simplicity regarding charting
Following that, we have VKTR talking about the importance of trading less instead of more!
And lastly, we have the Degenerate Based Spartan dropping a thread on how to make it for most people!
If you aren't following any of these chads, make sure you do. From now on LilGoose will try to get threads and alphas from unique people with every update.
When it comes to Narratives, we have Ansem or Z talking about how he trades them.
Secondly, JTradestar dropped a medium article on how he trades narratives.
PS Combining this knowledge + Narratives list that people like Kyle drop, and you might be onto something, in Goose's opinion 👀
Last but not least, we have the order flow section, and the only alpha for this section in this update is from JWondering, who talks about the importance of imbalances and context
In conclusion, the first half of February 2023 saw Bitcoin's price increase by 9% but with a 7.7% decrease, indicating a choppy and ranging market. It is advised to exercise caution and proper risk management to save yourself from significant drawdowns in your portfolio.
In terms of news, the next few weeks are packed with significant events such as Services and Manufacturing PMI on Feb 21, FOMC Minutes and Unemployment Claims on Feb 23, Core PCE Price Index on Feb 24, CB Consumer Confidence on Feb 28, and ISM Services PMI on Mar 3. It is advised to have open positions only after these events as they tend to have colossal volatility leading to higher chances of getting stopped out.
Lastly, the update includes recommendations from people on CT to enhance your trading skills through important trading threads or videos.
Remember to diversify your portfolio and stay informed to make wise decisions!
-Lil Goose out 🦆
Stay Tuned with #GooseAcademy
Disclaimer: The statements, proposals, and details above are informational only, and subject to change. We are in early-stage development and may need to change dates, details, or the project as a whole based on the protocol, team, legal or regulatory needs, or due to developments of Solana/Serum. Nothing above should be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.